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Validating a Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Italian Households

In: New Tools of Economic Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Bianchi

    (University of Pisa)

  • Marzia Romanelli

    (Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies)

  • Pietro A. Vagliasindi

    (University of Parma)

Abstract

Summary The recent literature — including among others Redmond et al. [22], Gupta and Kapur [13], Mitton et al. [19] — has highlighted model alignment and validation as crucial issues to be tackled when microsimulating the consequences of public policies. This paper discusses some preliminary validation experiments performed on the model inputs, procedures and simulation results. The validation process that we use involves external checks, such as the ex-post comparison (from 1996 since 1999) of aggregated key macro variables (e.g. dependent workers’ incomes, and demographic variables) with official data (e.g. supplied by the Italian National Institute for Statistics ISTAT) at national and at regional level (North, Centre and South). We test the appropriateness of the main assumptions and specification of the model and policies’ effectiveness also using Monte Carlo simulations. Specifically, our analysis allows us to test MIND’s ability in forecasting demographic and economic trends and in capturing socio-economic dynamics for regional areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Bianchi & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro A. Vagliasindi, 2005. "Validating a Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Italian Households," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Jacek Leskow & Lionello F. Punzo & Martín Puchet Anyul (ed.), New Tools of Economic Dynamics, chapter 14, pages 239-254, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-540-28444-4_14
    DOI: 10.1007/3-540-28444-3_14
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