Street Gangs: A Modeling Approach to Evaluating “At-Risk” Youth and Communities

Street gangs continue to plague the nation. One focus of current gang prevention efforts is to strive to reduce the number of potential members recruited by local street gangs and to advocate for more resources to promote healthy communities. This research outlines the use of analytical modeling and decision analysis to aid in identifying potentially “at-risk” children likely to join a street gang. As an illustrative example, we use data developed from a particular Ohio county. We examine multiple demographic measures and, based on these data, identify children potentially at risk for gang membership. A stronger means of identification of at-risk children can lead to a more efficient placement of resources to reduce the number of street gang recruits. We then take a similar approach to identify communities in the same Ohio county at risk for increased incidence of youth gang membership. This analysis can support public policy decision making regarding social investments for gang prevention efforts. While developed for a specific county, the approaches can be modified and extended to different locales.