The Journey of Innovation

This paper argues that innovation has itself evolved, from the slow, path-dependent, and foreseeable world of technological trajectories, to the less predictable world of innovation cascades, after incorporating the analysis of radical innovation in the last three decades. Innovation cascades are long series of radical innovations in one or in related technological domains. Two types of innovation cascades are distinguished in the paper: those emerging before the Industrial Revolution and the modern high-tech ones. The previous innovation cascades usually petered out fairly soon by lack of institutional support, as inventors and innovators were individuals or companies trying out their luck in the market place in a less than friendly environment. Present day innovation cascades benefit from numerous innovating firms, research universities and government laboratories, science, technology and innovation policies, increasing numbers of countries investing in R&D and innovation, as well as reduced costs of access to information, communication and transportation. Today’s innovation cascades tend to be more extended through time and space. Their systemic effects are also more widely diffused in global terms.