Scenarios that Could Give Rise to an African Net-Zero Energy Transition

This chapter presents four possible scenarios for Africa’s net-zero energy transition in the era of decarbonization. The window of opportunity for Africa to achieve a net-zero future is closing, and the pathways to a decarbonized economy by 2050 are narrowing globally. It is unclear how much of the burden African countries will bear and how they can benefit from an increasingly decarbonized world. Due to a lack of resources, limited access to technology, subpar governance, political unpredictability, and the need for sizable capital investments, African nations may run the risk of falling behind in the global energy transition. Through technical assistance, capacity building, and financial resources, global partners must help African countries develop and deploy environmentally friendly energy sources. The four potential scenarios for an African net-zero energy transition are aided and harsher scenarios; collaboration and a calculated transition; unaided and self-sufficient in exports; and a tangled and trapped transition. The transition to net-zero energy in Africa requires significant capital investment and global partnerships for technical assistance, capacity building, and access to finance. There are four potential scenarios: aided and harsher, collaboration and calculated transition, unaided and self-sufficient exports, and trapped transitions. Each scenario presents challenges and opportunities, and a successful transition requires careful planning, collaboration, and sustained investment from African countries and their global partners.