Estimating the Impact of Preventative Action on the Space-Time Incidence of HIV/AIDS

Ever since the isolation of HIV (Barré-Sinoussi et al., 1983; Gallo et al., 1984), debates about the appropriate methods to curtail the transmission of the virus have been fiercely contested (Smyth and Thomas, 1996a). In the continued absence of an effective vaccine (Cease and Berzofsky, 1988), these preventative actions have either entailed implementing medical interventions linked to the serological test or social measures, like community orientated education, intended to modify high-risk behaviours. Medical opinion, for example, has often justified contacting and testing the partners of those who are known to be HIV+ on the grounds that it is unethical to deny them the opportunity to take precautions to prevent further passage of the virus (May et al., 1989; Knox et al., 1993). In contrast, those most at risk to infection have been quick to counter that such public interventions are an extreme invasion of privacy (Krieger and Appleman, 1994) and, instead, argue for the adoption of socially constructed measures made sensitive to their specific needs (Kirp and Bayer, 1992).