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A Structural Time Series Approach to Forecasting the Space-Time Incidence of Infectious Diseases: Post-War Measles Elimination Programmes in the United States and Iceland

In: Recent Developments in Spatial Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • J. D. Logan

    (University of Cambridge)

  • A. D. Cliff

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

When the epidemiological history of the present century comes to be written, the outstanding success that historians will be able to record is the global eradication of smallpox. The complex story, which culminated in the last recorded natural case in October 1977, has been told by Fenner, Henderson, Arita, Jezek and Ladnyi (1988). That success has inevitably raised questions as to whether other infectious diseases can also be eradicated1. At the present time, WHO has eight diseases so targeted by the millenium — an original list of six (diphtheria, measles, poliomyelitis, whooping cough, neo-natal tetanus and tuberculosis) and two recent additions, hepatitis B and yellow fever.

Suggested Citation

  • J. D. Logan & A. D. Cliff, 1997. "A Structural Time Series Approach to Forecasting the Space-Time Incidence of Infectious Diseases: Post-War Measles Elimination Programmes in the United States and Iceland," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Manfred M. Fischer & Arthur Getis (ed.), Recent Developments in Spatial Analysis, chapter 6, pages 101-127, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:adspcp:978-3-662-03499-6_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-03499-6_6
    as

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