Socio-economic Dynamics and Spatial Mobility: A Scenario Application to Environmental Strategies in Transport

The 21st century will see a variety of new social and technological trends which will influence the way in which transport is supplied and utilized. At present a wide range of social phenomena, including rising incomes, increased leisure time, new communication technologies, an ageing population and a declining role of the traditional family are changing the nature of the demands we place on transport. In response to new techniques of production, shipping and the growth of markets economic activities are also changing. Institutional reforms such as privatisation and deregulation have changed transport in ways that are not yet well understood. At the same time the increasing use of petroleum resources for travel and transport has raised concerns about the eventual depletion of fossil fuels as well as the contribution to global warming and decreases in urban air quality. Europe and the United States are the world’s major energy consumers and transport users. However, the long-term sustainability of current transport systems is increasingly being questioned as levels of motor vehicle fatalities and injuries as well as congestion continue to rise. These trends raise questions on whether our current transport systems will be sustainable beyond the next half century (see also Black and Nijkamp, 2001).