Economic Power and the Transition to Renewables in South Africa

South Africa is among the most carbon intensive energy producers in the world, with around 90% of its electricity being produced from coal. Since the 2005, it has been experiencing rolling electricity “black-outs” as a result of lack of capacity, maintenance issues and a lack of safe reserve capacity. The Department of Energy in 2011 launched the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme (REI4P), with the aim of adding significant renewable energy capacity onto the grid. Between 2011 and 2015, around 5 GW was added onto the grid, and tariffs fell substantially. However, the REI4P was stalled between 2016 and 2021 when no new clean energy auctions were held. The programme was finally brought back onstream in 2021. South Africa is now producing renewable energy at some of the lowest tariffs in the world. South Africa has among the best solar and wind resources in the world. In the context of significant electricity challenges, significant pressure to decarbonize in light of international commitments, as well as increasing trade pressures related to the European Green Deal (CBAM, fit for 55, Farm-to-Fork Strategy), the need to transition has become even more urgent. The evidence suggests a potential to unlock low-cost renewable energy exists, given an appropriate policy framework in South Africa that sets up a foundation for attracting finance. However, the lack of commitment to the REI4P creates significant investor uncertainty. In this chapter, I propose to look at the political economy around policy choices made regarding the renewable energy programme, including the stalling of the renewable energy programme in 2015. In doing so, I will unpack the interests that have influenced the policy choices, and analyse the competing power structures that have influenced the agenda, shaped policy, and ultimately influenced outcomes.