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A History of South Africa’s Modern Business Cycle

In: Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa

Author

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  • P. Laubscher

    (Stellenbosch University
    Stellenbosch University)

Abstract

This chapter provides an analysis of the history of South African business cycles, from 1970 to 2017, focusing on the interaction between long-run growth and short-run cyclical change. The chapter focuses on the impact of discrete structural shocks and their interaction with the endogenous SA business cycle evolution. A perceptive narrative of the latter, combined with a quantitative analysis, provides important insights. Developments during the mid-1970s, and at the time of the 1994 political transition, were important dividing lines. Key changes in the South African business cycle, during the post-2009 period, are also identified. The extent to which these cyclical changes will have a bearing on the country’s long-term economic evolution remains uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Laubscher, 2020. "A History of South Africa’s Modern Business Cycle," Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development, in: Willem H. Boshoff (ed.), Business Cycles and Structural Change in South Africa, pages 111-166, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aaechp:978-3-030-35754-2_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-35754-2_6
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Christian Wet & Ilse Botha, 2022. "Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 37-67, March.

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