Key Debates on Transition

When the World Bank undertook what was perhaps the first retrospective review of the transition process in 1996, the economics literature on transition alone was enough to result in a ‘Selective Bibliography’ exceeding 700 items. Given the lead time for academic research it is not surprising that the subsequent years led to an explosion of writings; a June 2004 internet search under ‘post-communist transition’ produced an impossible 50,000 + items, and even a narrower academic works search at the University of Toronto library yielded over a hundred books, and thousands of journal articles. Anything approaching a comprehensive review has become nearly impossible, thus the aim of this chapter is much more modest but hopefully more usefully focused. On the basis of about 10 recent economic studies by recognized experts and institutions reviewing or assessing transition progress and performance, I will summarize briefly a few of the most important debates in the 1990s, and then draw attention to a handful of the most important issues looking forward. It turns out that how privatization was accomplished (regardless of how it was planned) provides an excellent link between past debates and future issues.