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German Monetary Union and its Implications for the Rest of Europe

In: The German Currency Union of 1990

Author

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  • Ray Barrell

Abstract

This chapter attempts to assess the effects of German monetary union (GEMU) for Britain and the rest of Europe. It is partly a casting over the commentaries the Institute (and the author) published over the years 1988 to 1994, and partly an analysis of the effects using a large, estimated, rational expectations model of the world economy. These two parts are not unrelated, because the quarterly National Institute forecast is produced using this model.2 The author has been actively involved in forecasting the European economy for some time, and hence it is possible to work back and see which events were a surprise, and which anticipated, and when they were first anticipated. This particular task is very important in the analysis of an historical re-evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray Barrell, 1997. "German Monetary Union and its Implications for the Rest of Europe," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Stephen F. Frowen & Jens Hölscher (ed.), The German Currency Union of 1990, chapter 4, pages 63-86, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-25368-5_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-25368-5_4
    as

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