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Balancing the National Accounts: The Adjustment of Initial Estimates — A Neglected Stage in Measurement

In: Demand, Equilibrium and Trade

Author

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  • Richard Stone

Abstract

Builders of econometric models encounter at the outset a problem of measurement. In spite of the best endeavours of statisticians, national accounts contain statistical discrepancies, residual errors, unidentified items and other balancing entries, evidence of the difficulties arising from the fact that the information available is in some degree incomplete, inconsistent and unreliable. These difficulties are not peculiar to economics: they have long been recognised in the physical sciences, and methods of combining and adjusting measurements have been devised. Thus, about a hundred years ago, Merriman (1884; 8th edn, 1911, p. 1) wrote: ‘The absolutely true values of the observed quantities cannot in general be found, but instead must be accepted and used values, derived from the combination and adjustment of the measurements, which are the most probable, and hence the best’. The same author’s critical bibliography of writings on the method of least squares (Merriman, 1877) enables us to trace the literature on the adjustment of conditioned observations much further back.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Stone, 1984. "Balancing the National Accounts: The Adjustment of Initial Estimates — A Neglected Stage in Measurement," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: A. Ingham & A. M. Ulph (ed.), Demand, Equilibrium and Trade, chapter 11, pages 191-212, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-06358-1_11
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-06358-1_11
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    Cited by:

    1. Canning, Patrick & Wang, Zhi, 2004. "A flexible modeling framework to estimate interregional trade patterns and input-output accounts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3359, The World Bank.
    2. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2010. "A globally consistent framework for reliability-based trade statistics reconciliation in the presence of an entrepôt," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 161-189, March.
    3. Tang, Heiwai & Wang, Fei & Wang, Zhi, 2020. "Domestic segment of global value chains in China under state capitalism✰," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 797-821.
    4. Zhi Wang & Mark Gehlhar & Shunli Yao, 2007. "A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt," Trade Working Papers 22715, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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