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Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement

In: Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Shirly Siew-Ling Wong
  • Shazali Abu Mansor
  • Chin-Hong Puah
  • Venus Khim-Sen Liew

Abstract

For years, economists have sought to summarize the visual evidence of cyclical oscillation in economic series to learn the characteristics of such cycles in real macroeconomic settings. The existence of various business cycle conceptions indeed shared a single objective, that is, to strengthen insight into the underlying thoughts behind recurring ups and downs in economic activity (Burns & Mitchell, 1946). However, the cyclical fluctuations in economic activity hardly follow a predictable pattern, as the size of expansion and contraction deviate across periods, each turning point in the business cycle presents certain crucial information that contains indications on future changing phases of the economy. Also, development in leading indicator analysis persuasively suggests that combinations of sets of leading series to form a unique composite index is generally better than any single series in explaining the cyclical movement.

Suggested Citation

  • Shirly Siew-Ling Wong & Shazali Abu Mansor & Chin-Hong Puah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2013. "Forecasting Malaysian Business Cycle Movement," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chee-Wooi Hooy & Ruhani Ali & S. Ghon Rhee (ed.), Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience, chapter 4, pages 51-60, Palgrave Macmillan.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-137-26661-3_4
    DOI: 10.1057/9781137266613_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Shirly Siew-Ling WONG & Chin-Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR & Venus Khim-Sen LIEW, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 235-248.

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