Conclusions

Since the mid-twentieth century the demographic structures of most developing countries have been transformed. Precipitous falls in mortality rates prompted extremely high levels of total population growth and the dramatic expansion of younger age cohorts. These changes generated understandable concern and have dominated debates about Third World development. More recently, however, the population dynamics of many developing countries have experienced a second radical change. Mortality rates have started to stabilise and levels of fertility have begun to drop, often sharply. In many senses these are welcome effects, since they entail a reduction in total population growth rates. However, one consequence of this change which has received little attention to date is the growing proportion of elderly in many developing countries. Whilst population ageing is a desirable process, it also poses a number of major challenges for the economic, social and political structures of these countries. This book has examined one key problem: the need to guarantee the elderly an acceptable level of economic welfare. As has been seen, elderly welfare is not just a question of effective social security provision. It is equally influenced by labour market dynamics and microscale social relations, as well as factors operating at the community level. Little is known about these effects and further research is urgently required to provide the basis for effective policy initiatives.