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Interpretation of Simulation Results

In: Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Nobuhiro Hosoe
  • Kenji Gasawa
  • Hideo Hashimoto

Abstract

We have explained how to develop a CGE model, prepare simulation scenarios and run a simulation to analyse the impact of policy or other exogenous shocks on an economy. The simulation results in the output files show changes of various economic variables, such as sectoral output, consumption, prices and welfare, induced by such shocks. However, a mere listing of these changes does not constitute an ‘analysis’. Interpretation of the simulation results, although usually the final step, is the most important task in CGE analysis. A discussion of the simulation results can only be made persuasive by explaining them using intuitive reasoning. To do so, we have to understand how the model structure combined with the simulation scenarios leads to the numerical solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuhiro Hosoe & Kenji Gasawa & Hideo Hashimoto, 2010. "Interpretation of Simulation Results," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling, chapter 9, pages 144-157, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-28165-3_9
    DOI: 10.1057/9780230281653_9
    as

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