Panel Discussion A Will the Business Cycle Ever Be Obsolete in Industrial Societies? I

Varied answers to this question can be derived from the papers at this conference. On one hand the answer depends on how one defines cycles. If one views cycles as some regular phenomenon demarcated by time duration as people used to do - that is, set up a chronology beginning at the long end of the spectrum with Kondratieff or long-wave cycles of fifty years or more and then Kuznets cycles (of twenty years), Juglar cycles (of nine years), Kitchin cycles (of three to four years), inventory cycles (eighteen months) etc., the answer might be yes. However, as exhibited in the discussion on long waves or the recent literature critically evaluating NBER reference-cycle chronologies, there is considerable doubt that such phenomena exist. If one views cycles as economic fluctuations - irregular disturbances - then it seems likely we will always have them as long as we live in a stochastic world with changing tastes, technologies, national disasters, wars, imperfect government policies, etc.