Introduction

Macroeconomic debt crises have been a part of the economic scene ever since the emergence of modern credit markets. Sovereign defaults go further back in history.1 From time to time, a certain consensus has arisen among influential economists, policymakers and economic agents that crises are “a thing of the past,” at least in some countries which appear to have gained immunity for some reason or other. This complacency has been repeatedly disappointed — and was probably a major factor in its own disappointment: it is in the nature of those economic storms that they gather strength more easily when they are less expected (Kindleberger, 1978). Various economies, particularly but not only those labeled “emerging,” have experienced a considerable number of crises, especially in the last 30 years (Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). The recent Great Recession in the world economy and the still open Euro Zone crisis have shown that highly developed central economies can also be vulnerable to debt-related macroeconomic disturbances of the first order of magnitude.