Währungspolitische Integration und die reale Aufwertung in den MOEL
In: List Forum Band 30
AbstractThe economies of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) have been subject to significant real appreciation in recent years. There were not just temporary factors behind this development, but also long-term economic phenomena ('Balassa-Samuelson-effect', capital inflows, etc.), which will also be relevant in the future. Therefore the CEEC, which want to join the European economic and monetary union (EMU), have to accept nominal appreciation or higher inflation. The Maastricht criteria favour the strategy of low inflation and nominal appreciation. This strategy may cause temporary output-losses and its application cannot continue after the entry to the EMU. There is a risk of 'stop and go policy' in the CEEC (restriction before entering the EMU and expansion afterwards). Therefore a modification of the Maastricht criteria would be preferable. (Original text only available in german language)
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