IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/eme/aecozz/s0731-90532022000044a002.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020

In: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova

Author

Listed:
  • Francis X. Diebold

Abstract

Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, the author study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The author tracks the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compares them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. The author shows, moreover, that the daily real-activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, the author provides a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis X. Diebold, 2022. "Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 5-24, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-90532022000044a002
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002/full/epub?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec&title=10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aruboba–Dieold–Scotti Index; ADS Index; nowcasting; business cycle; recession; expansion; coincident indicator; real economic activity; forecasting; Big Data; E32; E66;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-90532022000044a002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.