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Unit roots, structural breaks and trends

In: Handbook of Econometrics

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  • Stock, James H.

Abstract

This chapter reviews inference about large autoregressive or moving average roots in univariate time series, and structural change in multivariate time series regression. The "problem" of unit roots is cast more broadly as determining the order of integration of a series; estimation, inference, and confidence intervals are discussed. The discussion of structural change focuses on tests for parameter stability. Much emphasis is on asymptotic distributions in these nonstandard settings, and one theme is the general applicability of functional central limit theory. The quality of the asymptotic approximations to finite-sample distributions and implications for empirical work are critically reviewed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stock, James H., 1986. "Unit roots, structural breaks and trends," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 46, pages 2739-2841, Elsevier.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecochp:4-46
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Carrillo Julio A. & García Ana Laura, 2021. "The COVID-19 Economic Crisis in Mexico through the Lens of a Financial Conditions Index," Working Papers 2021-23, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other

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