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Economic impacts of a possible halt in the supply of energy commodities from Russia to Europe

In: CNB Global Economic Outlook - May 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Motl
  • Lubos Komarek
  • Jan Hosek
  • Sona Benecka

Abstract

The aim of the analysis is (i) to give a general description of the macroeconomic links in the context of a further pronounced reduction or a complete halt in the flow of natural gas, oil and other commodities from Russia to Europe; (ii) to give a flavour of emerging studies which aim to estimate the potential economic costs of this decision, and (iii) to present our own model scenario of the impacts of a halt in oil, coal and natural gas supplies from Russia on the euro area economy. Overall, a halt in the supply of natural gas in particular would have a stagflationary, or slumpflationary, effect on European economies. To conclude, we summarise the general recommendations for minimising the negative impacts of a possible halt in natural gas supplies from Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Motl & Lubos Komarek & Jan Hosek & Sona Benecka, 2022. "Economic impacts of a possible halt in the supply of energy commodities from Russia to Europe," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - May 2022, pages 14-20, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2022/5
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