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Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018

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  • World Bank Group

Abstract

Commodity prices in the third quarter of 2018 were buffeted by geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Energy prices gained 3 percent in 2018 Q3 (q/q), partly in response to the impending re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States along with continuing declines in production in Venezuela. As a result, crude oil prices are expected to average $72 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and $74/bbl in 2019. This represents a sizable upward revision from the April 2018 forecast. Moreover, risks to the oil price forecast are to the upside in the short-term, given the recent decline in spare capacity. In contrast, metal and agricultural prices declined 10 and 7 percent, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018 amid robust supplies and trade disputes. Metal prices are expected to stabilize in 2019 whereas agricultural prices are expected to gain almost 2 percent. This edition also examines how energy and metal commodity markets have evolved over the past 20 years. It shows that China has been the main driver of commodity demand growth, particularly for coal and metals, but that its demand is likely to slow while other emerging market economies are unlikely to emulate China.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank Group, 2019. "Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30614, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:30614
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    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30614/CMO-October-2018.pdf?sequence=6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    2. Belleh Fontem & Megan Price, 2021. "Joint client selection and contract design for a risk-averse commodity broker in a two-echelon supply chain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 307(1), pages 111-138, December.

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