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Inflation Forecasting in Bank Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Halim Alamsyah

Abstract

Since the enactment of the New Central Bank Act in 1999, Bank Indonesia is mandated to pursue a single objective of achieving and maintaining the stability of the rupiah value, primarily meant as low and stable inflation in the environment of a flexible exchange rate system. Such mandate calls for enhancement of capacity and ability to forecast inflation in Bank Indonesia The paper explains how Bank Indonesia forecasts inflation. It also reviews various techniques and pertinent issues in forecasting inflation, ranging from statistical methods, time series, econometric models and leading indicators. Notwithstanding the advanced econometric techniques aided by super computer, the paper reiterates that judgement continue to play an important role in forecasting inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Halim Alamsyah, 2004. "Inflation Forecasting in Bank Indonesia," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ40.
    • Handle: RePEc:sea:opaper:occ40
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    File URL: http://www.seacen.org/GUI/pdf/publications/occasional/2004/OP40.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lie, Denny, 2021. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 532-552.
    2. Zams, Bastian Muzbar, 2021. "Frictions and empirical fit in a DSGE model for Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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