The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict quickly sparked fears of a global food crisis. Food prices were already high in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries were facing serious food insecurity. The Black Sea region is critical to meeting the world’s food needs, as is Russia’s role in supplying natural gas and, along with Belarus, fertilizers. Any disruption to this trade would drive up food prices and aggravate poverty, hunger, and malnutrition in vulnerable countries. With other countries undertaking export restrictions, these trade disruptions became even larger. The conflict has primarily affected food systems through effects on trade in cereals and vegetable oils, interruptions to fertilizer exports, and rising energy prices, although a drop in agricultural production in Ukraine is also a significant factor. Together, these impacts could drive millions more people into hunger and poverty. Early in the crisis, the FAO estimated that a prolonged disruption of exports from Ukraine and Russia could increase the number of undernourished people by 8 to 13 million in 2022. IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address this new crisis. We signaled the worrying outlook for some agricultural commodities prior to the onset of conflict, and our first analysis on potential impacts was released on February 24, the day of the invasion. Mindful of the urgent need for analysis, IFPRI established a new blog series on High Food and Fertilizer Prices and War in Ukraine. This series, which was supported by a set of online trackers and dashboards providing access to detailed information, allowed for rapid dissemination of critical information and was widely shared through our website and communications with policymakers and media outlets. IFPRI’s strong presence at the country level allowed researchers to provide important insights into the conflict’s impact on vulnerable countries and regions. The blog posts include timely analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling for vulnerable countries, which were more fully examined in a series of briefs. This book is a compilation of those blog posts. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems. These blog posts each reflect a moment in time — the Russia-Ukraine war and its global repercussions have continued to evolve, especially since the earliest posts were written. Thus, they provide a vivid set of “snapshots” that can help us understand and learn from this crisis. As of this writing, international prices have declined from their post-invasion highs, but as the crisis continues to unfold, further volatility seems almost certain. Moreover, compounding factors have exacerbated inflation around the world. Given that the total supply of both food and fertilizers may be enough for all of humanity, the crisis remains one of affordability rather than availability.