Scenario Analysis of Energy Security in the East Asia Summit Region

This energy security study uses three scenarios as key factors affecting regional energy security: supply uncertainty in the Middle East and Russia, low oil price, and use of cheap coal. In each scenario, the plausible outcomes are generated based on expert analyses. This study further proposes the following policy recommendations: (i) Create a resilient-energy system which means that importing countries need to have diversified fuel mix, shifting from fossil fuel consumption to more renewable energy. For exporting countries, this means becoming less dependent on oil revenue for domestic economic growth. (ii) The exporting country needs to have an earning margin, which is also fair enough to reflect affordability of importing countries. (iii) Encouraging, implementing and accelerating the deployment of high-efficiency coal-fired power generation and other environmental technologies are key to use resource effectively and held abate carbon dioxide emissions, and thus contributing to energy security.