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Addressing the growing impact of COVID-19 with a view to reactivation with equality: New projections

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Abstract

This Special Report is the fifth in a series by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the evolution and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean. The key messages are: Economic activity in the world is falling by more than what was foreseen several months ago as a result of the crisis stemming from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and this increases negative external effects on Latin America and the Caribbean through trade channels, the terms of trade, tourism and remittances. In addition, the region is currently at the epicenter of the pandemic, and while some governments have begun to lift measures to contain its spread, others have had to keep them in place or even redouble them due to the persistent daily uptick in cases. Since both external and domestic shocks have intensified, the region will experience a -9.1% fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020. It is expected that the regional unemployment rate will be around 13.5% by the end of 2020, which represents an upward revision (2 percentage points) of the estimate presented in April and a 5.4 percentage point increase versus the 2019 figure (8.1%). ECLAC forecasts that the number of people living in poverty will rise by 45.4 million in 2020, which means that the total number of people in that situation will go from 185.5 million in 2019 to 230.9 million people in 2020 – a figure that represents 37.3% of Latin America’s population. Countries in the region have announced major packages of fiscal measures to confront the health emergency and mitigate its social and economic effects. National efforts must be supported by international cooperation to expand policy space through increased financing under favorable conditions and debt relief. Likewise, making progress on equality is crucial for effectively controlling the pandemic and for a sustainable economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Suggested Citation

  • -, 2020. "Addressing the growing impact of COVID-19 with a view to reactivation with equality: New projections," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 45784 edited by Cepal, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col016:45784
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. -, 2020. "Preventing the COVID-19 crisis from becoming a food crisis: Urgent measures against hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean," Coediciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 45726 edited by Fao, March.
    2. -, 2020. "Preventing the COVID-19 crisis from becoming a food crisis: Urgent measures against hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 45726 edited by Fao, September.
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    1. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    2. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D. Younger, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality, Poverty and Mobility in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Working Papers 2012, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    3. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    4. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Economic Shock on Inequality and Poverty in Mexico," Working Papers 2014, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    5. Lustig, Nora & Tommasi, Mariano, 2020. "COVID-19 and social protection of poor and vulnerable groups in Latin America: a conceptual framework," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. Michael Witter, 2021. "COVID-19: Intensifying the Existential Threat to the Caribbean," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 10(1), pages 155-172, April.
    7. Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto & Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Silverio-Murillo, Adan, 2021. "Druglords don’t stay at home: COVID-19 pandemic and crime patterns in Mexico City," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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