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Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy

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  • Gaspar,Vítor
  • Issing,Otmar
  • Tristani,Oreste
  • Vestin,David

Abstract

Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.

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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by Cambridge University Press in its series Cambridge Books with number 9780521671071 and published in 2006.

Order: http://www.cambridge.org/uk/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521671071
Handle: RePEc:cup:cbooks:9780521671071

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Web page: http://www.cambridge.org

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Cited by:
  1. Stephen Hall & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the Demand for Money and the ECB’s Monetary-Policy Strategy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/05, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  2. Andreas Beyer & Vitor Gaspar & Christina Gerberding & Otmar Issing, 2008. "Opting Out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy After the Break Down of Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 14596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gaspar, Vítor & Levin, Andrew & Martins, Fernando Manuel & Smets, Frank, 2007. "Evidence from Surveys of Price-Setting Managers: Policy Lessons and Directions for Ongoing Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 6227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Miomir Jakšić & Aleksandra Praščević, 2011. "The New Political Macroeconomics in Modern Macroeconomics and Its Appliance to Transition Processes in Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(4), pages 545-557, December.
  5. Alberto Locarno, 2007. "Imperfect Knowledge, Adaptive Learning, and the Bias Against Activist Monetary Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 47-85, September.
  6. Vitor Gaspar & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Stability First: Reflections Inspired by Otmar Issing's Success as the ECB's Chief Economist," NBER Working Papers 12277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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