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Gibt es eine spekulative Blase am deutschen Wohnimmobilienmarkt?

Author

Listed:
  • Henger, Ralph
  • Pomogajko, Kirill
  • Voigtländer, Michael

Abstract

In den Jahren 2010 und 2011 sind die Preise für Wohnimmobilien in Deutschland zum ersten Mal nach über einer Dekade wieder flächendeckend real gestiegen. Die Preissteigerungen sind mit bis zu 5 Prozent pro Jahr in einigen Metropolen teilweise so rasant, dass eine Marktüberhitzung oder die Entstehung einer spekulativen Preisblase befürchtet wird. Derzeit gibt es jedoch keine Anzeichen für eine spekulative Blase am deutschen Immobilienmarkt. Die Preise folgen vielmehr den Mieten und der starken konjunkturellen Entwicklung. Wesentliche Treiber für die dynamische Preisentwicklung in den Großstädten sind vor allem die Re-Urbanisierung und der Wunsch der Investoren, eine sichere Anlage zu tätigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Henger, Ralph & Pomogajko, Kirill & Voigtländer, Michael, 2012. "Gibt es eine spekulative Blase am deutschen Wohnimmobilienmarkt?," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 39(3), pages 3-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:157056
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.12-03-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
    2. Andreas Dombret & Reiner Braun & Nico. B. Rottke & Christopher Yvo Oertel & Andreas Mense & Jens Schumacher, 2013. "Rising Rental and Real-Estate Prices: How Real is the Threat of a Bubble?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(02), pages 03-20, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immobilienpreise; Preisblasen; Spekulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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