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IWH-Frühwarnindikatoren für Finanzkrisen in Mittel- und Osteuropa: Risikopotenzial wieder angestiegen

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  • Mile, Ibolya

Abstract

Die aktuelle Analyse der IWH-Frühwarnindikatoren für Finanzkrisen signalisiert ein Ende der bisherigen Entspannungstendenz in den Ländern Mittel- und Osteuropas. Im zweiten Quartal 2003 stieg das Risikopotenzial für Finanzkrisen in fast allen Ländern dieser Region an. Die bisher positiven Tendenzen drohen ins Stocken zu geraten. Die Ursachen hierfür liegen in erster Linie im geld- und währungspolitischen Bereich. Die Fiskalpolitik erscheint insbesondere in Kroatien, Polen und der Tschechischen Republik problematisch. Im Gegensatz dazu zeichnet sich Bulgarien durch eine stabile makroökonomische Lage aus, die in diesem Beitrag eingehender dargelegt wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Mile, Ibolya, 2003. "IWH-Frühwarnindikatoren für Finanzkrisen in Mittel- und Osteuropa: Risikopotenzial wieder angestiegen," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 9(16), pages 482-487.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhwiw:iwh-16-03-5
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