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Modelling Croatian Export Dynamics Using Global Macroeconometric Model

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  • Saša Jakšić Berislav Žmuk

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Five years following the occurrence of the global economic and financial crisis, Croatia is one of the few countries in the region whose export has still not recovered to the pre-crisis level. In order to properly account for international linkages and possible crisis spillover effects, a Global Vector AutoRegressive (GVAR) model is defined. The GVAR model is a consistent global macroeconometric model which enables modelling interactions between Croatia and a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the domestic variables are the main factor explaining Croatian export dynamics in the short run. However, in the long run, the main determinants of Croatian export are the US and German real exchange rates. These findings provide evidence in favour of low competitiveness of Croatian export. JEL Classification: F10, F17, C30

Suggested Citation

  • Saša Jakšić Berislav Žmuk, 2014. "Modelling Croatian Export Dynamics Using Global Macroeconometric Model," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 17(Special C), pages 31-48, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:zirebs:v:17:y:2014:i:sci:p:31-48
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global VAR; GFEVD; international trade; export; Croatia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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