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The Economic Cost Of Revolution: The Iranian Case. A Synthetic Control Analysis

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  • SERHAT HASANCEBI

    (Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II, University of the Basque Country, UPV/EHU, Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain)

Abstract

In 1978, a revolution in Iran succeeded in toppling Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. After the Shah was forced to leave the country, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, one of the leaders of the revolution, returned from his exile in France to become the Supreme Leader of Iran. In this paper, we investigate the economic cost of the revolution using the synthetic control method. According to our estimates, we conclude that after the emergence of the revolution, the annual real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Iran declined by about 20.15% on average relative to its synthetic counterpart without the revolution in the period 1978–1980. If Iran had not faced such a revolution, the accumulated per capita GDP would have been $6,479 higher, which amounts to an average annual loss of about $2,159 over that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhat Hasancebi, 2022. "The Economic Cost Of Revolution: The Iranian Case. A Synthetic Control Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 67(01), pages 267-287, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:67:y:2022:i:01:n:s0217590820420072
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590820420072
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    Cited by:

    1. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.

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