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Correlations Between Political Party Size And Voter Memory: A Statistical Analysis Of Opinion Polls

Author

Listed:
  • CHRISTIAN A. ANDRESEN

    (Department of Physics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • HENNING F. HANSEN

    (Department of Physics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • ALEX HANSEN

    (Department of Physics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • GIOVANI L. VASCONCELOS

    (Laboratório de Física Teórica e Computacional, Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 50670-901 Recife, Brazil)

  • JOSÉ S. ANDRADE

    (Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, 60451-970 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)

Abstract

This paper describes the application of statistical methods to political polling data in order to look for correlations and memory effects. We propose measures for quantifying the political memory using the correlation function and scaling analysis. These methods reveal time correlations and self-affine scaling properties, respectively, and they have been applied to polling data from Norway. Power-law dependencies have been found between correlation measures and party size, and different scaling behaviors have been found for large and small parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian A. Andresen & Henning F. Hansen & Alex Hansen & Giovani L. Vasconcelos & José S. Andrade, 2008. "Correlations Between Political Party Size And Voter Memory: A Statistical Analysis Of Opinion Polls," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1647-1657.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:19:y:2008:i:11:n:s0129183108013187
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183108013187
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelo Mondaini Calvão & Nuno Crokidakis & Celia Anteneodo, 2015. "Stylized Facts in Brazilian Vote Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Hygor Piaget M Melo & Saulo D S Reis & André A Moreira & Hernán A Makse & José S Andrade Jr., 2018. "The price of a vote: Diseconomy in proportional elections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2017. "Empirical Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling of the Lithuanian Parliamentary Elections," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-15, November.
    4. Cardoso, M. & Mendes, R.S. & Souza, J.T.G. & Ribeiro, H.V., 2020. "Gender difference in candidature processes for Brazilian elections," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).

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