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Climate Sensitivity Of Electricity Consumption And Peak Demand In India: Case Of Heterogeneous Climate Zones

Author

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  • DIVYA JAIN

    (TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India)

  • GOPAL K. SARANGI

    (TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India)

  • SUKANYA DAS

    (TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India)

Abstract

Electricity demand is determined largely by regional climate conditions and seasonal characteristics, apart from a myriad of socio-economic and demographic factors. This paper investigates the climate sensitivity of electricity consumption and peak demand in six energy-intensive Indian states across heterogeneous climate zones using a non-parametric approach known as multivariate adaptive regression splines. The results show the highest temperature sensitivity of cooling electricity consumption in Punjab (8.2%), followed by Rajasthan (3.5%), Madhya Pradesh (3.1%), Tamil Nadu (2.3%), and Uttar Pradesh (1.2%). Among other climate variables, relative humidity has a non-linear impact on electricity consumption in the majority of states. The minimum temperature rise has a stronger influence on peak electricity demand than the maximum temperature in three states. Given that air-conditioning penetration is expected to increase in the future, this state-level analysis will help in developing accurate forecasts for electricity demand and formulating climate adaptation strategies for India.

Suggested Citation

  • Divya Jain & Gopal K. Sarangi & Sukanya Das, 2023. "Climate Sensitivity Of Electricity Consumption And Peak Demand In India: Case Of Heterogeneous Climate Zones," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 1-34, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:14:y:2023:i:03:n:s2010007823500136
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500136
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    Cited by:

    1. Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria’s power sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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