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The Class Of Nonlinear Stochastic Models As A Background For The Bursty Behavior In Financial Markets

Author

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  • VYGINTAS GONTIS

    (Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy (ITPA), Vilnius University, Gostauto St. 12, 01108 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • ALEKSEJUS KONONOVICIUS

    (Institute of Theoretical Physics and Astronomy (ITPA), Vilnius University, Gostauto St. 12, 01108 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • STEFAN REIMANN

    (Swiss Re, Risk Management, Mythenquai 60/60, 8022 Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

We investigate behavior of the continuous stochastic signals above some threshold, bursts, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model applicable for the modeling of absolute return and trading activity in financial markets which can be transformed into Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time statistics. Using these results we derive PDF of burst duration for the proposed model. We confirm derived analytical expressions by numerical evaluation and discuss bursty behavior of return in financial markets in the framework of modeling by nonlinear SDE.

Suggested Citation

  • Vygintas Gontis & Aleksejus Kononovicius & Stefan Reimann, 2012. "The Class Of Nonlinear Stochastic Models As A Background For The Bursty Behavior In Financial Markets," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:15:y:2012:i:supp0:n:s0219525912500713
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219525912500713
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kononovicius, A. & Ruseckas, J., 2015. "Nonlinear GARCH model and 1/f noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 74-81.
    2. Vygintas Gontis & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2014. "Consentaneous Agent-Based and Stochastic Model of the Financial Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-12, July.
    3. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Vygintas Gontis, 2019. "Approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes," Papers 1902.00924, arXiv.org.
    4. Vygintas Gontis & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2017. "The consentaneous model of the financial markets exhibiting spurious nature of long-range memory," Papers 1712.05121, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    5. V. Gontis & A. Kononovicius, 2017. "Burst and inter-burst duration statistics as empirical test of long-range memory in the financial markets," Papers 1701.01255, arXiv.org.
    6. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Vygintas Gontis, 2014. "Herding interactions as an opportunity to prevent extreme events in financial markets," Papers 1409.8024, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    7. Vygintas Gontis & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2017. "Spurious memory in non-equilibrium stochastic models of imitative behavior," Papers 1707.09801, arXiv.org.
    8. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Julius Ruseckas, 2014. "Nonlinear GARCH model and 1/f noise," Papers 1412.6244, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    9. Gontis, V. & Kononovicius, A., 2018. "The consentaneous model of the financial markets exhibiting spurious nature of long-range memory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 1075-1083.
    10. Vygintas Gontis, 2021. "Order flow in the financial markets from the perspective of the Fractional L\'evy stable motion," Papers 2105.02057, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    11. Vygintas Gontis & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2019. "Bessel-like birth-death process," Papers 1904.13064, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    12. Gontis, V. & Kononovicius, A., 2020. "Bessel-like birth–death process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    13. Rytis Kazakeviv{c}ius & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2023. "Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in the scaled voter model," Papers 2301.08088, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    14. Rytis Kazakevicius & Aleksejus Kononovicius & Bronislovas Kaulakys & Vygintas Gontis, 2021. "Understanding the nature of the long-range memory phenomenon in socioeconomic systems," Papers 2108.02506, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.

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