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Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment

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  • Mark D. A. Rounsevell
  • Marc J. Metzger

Abstract

This article reviews the historic evolution of qualitative scenario storylines and the various methods used in their development and application in environmental change assessment. The scenario method largely emerged from military strategy and war planning, with the techniques being adopted and advanced further by the business sector. Scenario storylines became widely applied to environmental problems from the 1970s and since then a number of new studies have been developed at both global and regional scales. Many different methods are used in scenario storyline development although most examples applied to environmental change assessment are exploratory and defined through a matrix logic that reflects different dimensions of environmental change drivers. This article discusses several development techniques for scenario storylines, provides examples of existing scenario storylines, discusses the differences between them, and highlights a number of limitations in the current scenario storyline development methods. The credibility, legitimacy, and saliency of future scenario storylines are discussed with respect to personal beliefs, the equifinality of alternative development pathways, the validation and uncertainty of assumptions, stakeholder engagement in visions development, and participatory methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Scenario Development

Suggested Citation

  • Mark D. A. Rounsevell & Marc J. Metzger, 2010. "Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 606-619, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:1:y:2010:i:4:p:606-619
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.63
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    Cited by:

    1. Dietz, Julia & Treydte, Anna Christina & Lippe, Melvin, 2023. "Exploring the future of Kafue National Park, Zambia: Scenario-based land use and land cover modelling to understand drivers and impacts of deforestation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Hoolohan, Claire & McLachlan, Carly & Larkin, Alice, 2019. "‘Aha’ moments in the water-energy-food nexus: A new morphological scenario method to accelerate sustainable transformation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Steve Harris & Jan Weinzettel & Gregor Levin, 2020. "Implications of Low Carbon City Sustainability Strategies for 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Rega, Carlo & Helming, John & Paracchini, Maria Luisa, 2019. "Environmentalism and localism in agricultural and land-use policies can maintain food production while supporting biodiversity. Findings from simulations of contrasting scenarios in the EU," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Banerjee, Onil & Crossman, Neville & Vargas, Renato & Brander, Luke & Verburg, Peter & Cicowiez, Martin & Hauck, Jennifer & McKenzie, Emily, 2020. "Global socio-economic impacts of changes in natural capital and ecosystem services: State of play and new modeling approaches," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    6. Theodore G. Shepherd & Elisabeth A. Lloyd, 2021. "Meaningful climate science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Mascarenhas, André & Haase, Dagmar & Ramos, Tomás B. & Santos, Rui, 2019. "Pathways of demographic and urban development and their effects on land take and ecosystem services: The case of Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 181-194.

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