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Assessing Crew Response Probability for a Sequence of Actions with an Overall Time Constraint

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  • Paolo Vestrucci

Abstract

The following situation has been considered: during an accident sequence, a crew has to do a proper set of actions within a finite time window in order to achieve a specific goal. The operator actions are considered independent, they are lined up in series, and a single failure leads to mission failure. This paper proposes a general methodology for assessing the crew response (or success) probability, through a convolution integral formulation. This method is general and can be applied to any response probability model; an application to the Human Cognitive Reliability model is given.

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  • Paolo Vestrucci, 1989. "Assessing Crew Response Probability for a Sequence of Actions with an Overall Time Constraint," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 37-41, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:9:y:1989:i:1:p:37-41
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01217.x
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