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Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment

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  • Kenneth T. Bogen
  • Robert C. Spear

Abstract

An integrated, quantitative approach to incorporating both uncertainty and interindividual variability into risk prediction models is described. Individual risk R is treated as a variable distributed in both an uncertainty dimension and a variability dimension, whereas population risk I (the number of additional cases caused by R) is purely uncertain. I is shown to follow a compound Poisson‐binomial distribution, which in low‐level risk contexts can often be approximated well by a corresponding compound Poisson distribution. The proposed analytic framework is illustrated with an application’to cancer risk assessment for a California population exposed to 1,2‐dibromo‐3‐chloropropane from ground water.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth T. Bogen & Robert C. Spear, 1987. "Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 427-436, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:7:y:1987:i:4:p:427-436
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00480.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Milvy, 1986. "A General Guideline for Management of Risk from Carcinogens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 69-79, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Sheehan & Ankur Singhal & Kenneth T. Bogen & David MacIntosh & Renee M. Kalmes & John McCarthy, 2018. "Potential Exposure and Cancer Risk from Formaldehyde Emissions from Installed Chinese Manufactured Laminate Flooring," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1128-1142, June.
    2. Mark Nicas, 1996. "An Analytical Framework for Relating Dose, Risk, and Incidence: An Application to Occupational Tuberculosis Infection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 527-538, August.
    3. H. Christopher Frey & David E. Burmaster, 1999. "Methods for Characterizing Variability and Uncertainty: Comparison of Bootstrap Simulation and Likelihood‐Based Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 109-130, February.
    4. Junyu Zheng & H. Christopher Frey, 2004. "Quantification of Variability and Uncertainty Using Mixture Distributions: Evaluation of Sample Size, Mixing Weights, and Separation Between Components," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 553-571, June.
    5. G. P. Brorby & P. J. Sheehan & D. W. Berman & K. T. Bogen & S. E. Holm, 2013. "Exposures from Chrysotile‐Containing Joint Compound: Evaluation of New Model Relating Respirable Dust to Fiber Concentrations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 161-176, January.
    6. Paul S. Price & Cynthia L. Curry & Philip E. Goodrum & Michael N. Gray & Jane I. McCrodden & Natalie W. Harrington & Heather Carlson‐Lynch & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Monte Carlo Modeling of Time‐Dependent Exposures Using a Microexposure Event Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 339-348, June.
    7. Adam M. Finkel, 1990. "A Simple Formula for Calculating the “Mass Density” of a Lognormally Distributed Characteristic: Applications to Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 291-301, June.
    8. Kenneth T. Bogen, 2014. "Does EPA Underestimate Cancer Risks by Ignoring Susceptibility Differences?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1780-1784, October.
    9. Kenneth T. Bogen, 2005. "Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1085-1095, October.
    10. Kenneth T. Bogen, 2014. "Unveiling Variability and Uncertainty for Better Science and Decisions on Cancer Risks from Environmental Chemicals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(10), pages 1795-1806, October.
    11. Brent Finley & Dennis Paustenbach, 1994. "The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air, Water, and Soil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 53-73, February.
    12. Junyu Zheng & H. Christopher Frey, 2005. "Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty with Known Measurement Error: Methodology and Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 663-675, June.
    13. Brent Finley & Deborah Proctor & Paul Scott & Natalie Harrington & Dennis Paustenbach & Paul Price, 1994. "Recommended Distributions for Exposure Factors Frequently Used in Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 533-553, August.
    14. Andrew E. Smith & P. Barry Ryan & John S. Evans, 1992. "The Effect of Neglecting Correlations When Propagating Uncertainty and Estimating the Population Distribution of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 467-474, December.
    15. Bas Groot Koerkamp & Theo Stijnen & Milton C. Weinstein & M. G. Myriam Hunink, 2011. "The Combined Analysis of Uncertainty and Patient Heterogeneity in Medical Decision Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(4), pages 650-661, July.
    16. Kevin P. Brand & Mitchell J. Small, 1995. "Updating Uncertainty in an Integrated Risk Assessment: Conceptual Framework and Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(6), pages 719-729, December.
    17. Paul S. Price & Steave H. Su & Jeff R. Harrington & Russell E. Keenan, 1996. "Uncertainty and Variation in Indirect Exposure Assessments: An Analysis of Exposure to Tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐Dioxin from a Beef Consumption Pathway," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 263-277, April.
    18. Kenneth T. Bogen, 1995. "Methods to Approximate Joint Uncertainty and Variability in Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 411-419, June.

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