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Quantifying Experts’ Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic Diseases

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  • John Paul Gosling
  • Andy Hart
  • David C. Mouat
  • Mirzet Sabirovic
  • Simon Scanlan
  • Alick Simmons

Abstract

Since the foot‐and‐mouth disease outbreak of 2001 in the United Kingdom, there has been debate about the sharing, between government and industry, both the costs of livestock disease outbreaks and responsibility for the decisions that give rise to them. As part of a consultation into the formation of a new body to manage livestock diseases, government veterinarians and economists produced estimates of the average annual costs for a number of exotic infectious diseases. In this article, we demonstrate how the government experts were helped to quantify their uncertainties about the cost estimates using formal expert elicitation techniques. This has enabled the decisionmakers to have a greater appreciation of government experts’ uncertainty in this policy area.

Suggested Citation

  • John Paul Gosling & Andy Hart & David C. Mouat & Mirzet Sabirovic & Simon Scanlan & Alick Simmons, 2012. "Quantifying Experts’ Uncertainty About the Future Cost of Exotic Diseases," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 881-893, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:5:p:881-893
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01704.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Dickey, James M., 1985. "Double- and single-bisection methods for subjective probability assessment in a location-scale family," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 149-163.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory F. Nemet & Laura Diaz Anadon & Elena Verdolini, 2017. "Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 315-330, February.
    2. V. J. Roelofs & W. Roelofs, 2013. "Using Probability Boxes to Model Elicited Information: A Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(9), pages 1650-1660, September.

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