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Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks

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  • Milan M. Ćirković
  • Anders Sandberg
  • Nick Bostrom

Abstract

We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma‐ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work.

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  • Milan M. Ćirković & Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom, 2010. "Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1495-1506, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:10:p:1495-1506
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01460.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Gomes & H. F. Levison & K. Tsiganis & A. Morbidelli, 2005. "Origin of the cataclysmic Late Heavy Bombardment period of the terrestrial planets," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7041), pages 466-469, May.
    2. Toby Ord & Rafaela Hillerbrand & Anders Sandberg, 2010. "Probing the improbable: methodological challenges for risks with low probabilities and high stakes," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 191-205, March.
    3. Adrian Kent, 2004. "A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 157-168, February.
    4. Howard Roscoe, 2001. "The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 231-246, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan M. Ćirković, 2012. "Small Theories and Large Risks—Is Risk Analysis Relevant for Epistemology?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1994-2004, November.
    2. Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson, 2020. "Existential Risks to Humanity Should Concern International Policymakers and More Could Be Done in Considering Them at the International Governance Level," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2303-2312, November.
    3. Bruce Tonn & Dorian Stiefel, 2013. "Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1772-1787, October.
    4. Anthony Michael Barrett, 2017. "Value of Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) Information: Cost-Effectiveness-Based Approach for GCR Reduction," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 187-203, September.
    5. Seth D. Baum, 2023. "Assessing natural global catastrophic risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2699-2719, February.

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