IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v17y1997i2p237-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

U.S. Aviation Regulations Increase Probability of Midair Collisions

Author

Listed:
  • Robert W. Patlovany

Abstract

A purely stochastic Monte Carlo model is used to compare the relative midair collision course probabilities and mean closing velocities of four systems of rules for aircraft cruising altitudes as a function of altitude error: (1) current U.S. federal rules, (2) random altitudes, and (3) two proposed alternatives to the current rules. This model increments error while: (1) counting collisions among cruising pairs of aircraft following the four rules being tested on random headings between randomly placed airports, and (2) calculating mean closing velocities for each rule. The calculations verify that: (1) federal rules increase collision course probabilities by about four times more than for a chaotic system of aircraft cruising at randomly selected altitudes, (2) risk is directly proportional to the level of compliance, and (3) mean closing velocities resulting from the current rule are slightly less than for random altitudes, while being almost twice as high as for the proposed rules. High closing velocities are shown to increase the collision probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Patlovany, 1997. "U.S. Aviation Regulations Increase Probability of Midair Collisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 237-248, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:237-248
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00862.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00862.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00862.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Machol, 1975. "An Aircraft Collision Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(10), pages 1089-1101, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wendl, Michael C., 2003. "Collision probability between sets of random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 249-254, September.
    2. Anders la Cour‐Harbo & Henrik Schiøler, 2019. "Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2499-2513, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnold Barnett, 2000. "Free-Flight and en Route Air Safety: A First-Order Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 833-845, December.
    2. Netjasov, Fedja & Janic, Milan, 2008. "A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 213-220.
    3. Anders la Cour‐Harbo & Henrik Schiøler, 2019. "Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2499-2513, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:2:p:237-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.