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Semiparametric estimation of the canonical permanent‐transitory model of earnings dynamics

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  • Yingyao Hu
  • Robert Moffitt
  • Yuya Sasaki

Abstract

This paper presents identification and estimation results for a flexible state space model. Our modification of the canonical model allows the permanent component to follow a unit root process and the transitory component to follow a semiparametric model of a higher‐order autoregressive‐moving‐average (ARMA) process. Using panel data of observed earnings, we establish identification of the nonparametric joint distributions for each of the permanent and transitory components over time. We apply the identification and estimation method to the earnings dynamics of U.S. men using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID). The results show that the marginal distributions of permanent and transitory earnings components are more dispersed, more skewed, and have fatter tails than the normal and that earnings mobility is much lower than for the normal. We also find strong evidence for the existence of higher‐order ARMA processes in the transitory component, which lead to much different estimates of the distributions of and earnings mobility in the permanent component, implying that misspecification of the process for transitory earnings can affect estimated distributions of the permanent component and estimated earnings dynamics of that component. Thus our flexible model implies earnings dynamics for U.S. men different from much of the prior literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Yingyao Hu & Robert Moffitt & Yuya Sasaki, 2019. "Semiparametric estimation of the canonical permanent‐transitory model of earnings dynamics," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1495-1536, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:10:y:2019:i:4:p:1495-1536
    DOI: 10.3982/QE1117
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2023. "Recovering Latent Variables by Matching," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 118(541), pages 693-706, January.
    2. Hao Dong & Yuya Sasaki, 2022. "Estimation of average derivatives of latent regressors: with an application to inference on buffer-stock saving," Departmental Working Papers 2204, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ivan Fernandez-Val & Wayne Yuan Gao & Yuan Liao & Francis Vella, 2022. "Dynamic Heterogeneous Distribution Regression Panel Models, with an Application to Labor Income Processes," Papers 2202.04154, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    4. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    5. Silvia Sarpietro & Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Non-Existent Moments of Earnings Growth," Papers 2203.08014, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    6. Kengo Kato & Yuya Sasaki & Takuya Ura, 2021. "Robust inference in deconvolution," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 109-142, January.
    7. Costanza Naguib & Patrick Gagliardini, 2023. "A Semi-nonparametric Copula Model for Earnings Mobility," Diskussionsschriften dp2302, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    8. Costanza Naguib, 2022. "Financial Turmoil and Earnings Mobility," Diskussionsschriften dp2208, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Costanza Naguib, 2022. "Did earnings mobility change after minimum wage introduction? Evidence from parametric and semi‐nonparametric methods in Germany," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1379-1402, November.
    10. Kartik B. Athreya & Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Urvi Neelakantan, 2021. "Incarceration, Earnings, and Race," Working Paper 21-11`, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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