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The stochastic duel with time‐dependent hit probabilities

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  • C. J. Ancker

Abstract

The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed‐time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given.

Suggested Citation

  • C. J. Ancker, 1984. "The stochastic duel with time‐dependent hit probabilities," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 363-371, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navlog:v:31:y:1984:i:3:p:363-371
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.3800310303
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