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Fixing a Leaky Fixing: Short‐Term Market Reactions to the London PM Gold Price Fixing

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  • Andrew Caminschi
  • Richard Heaney

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of the London PM gold price fixing on two exchange‐traded gold instruments: the GC gold futures contract and the GLD exchange‐traded fund. We find significantly elevated levels of trade volume and price volatility immediately following the fixing's start, well before the conclusion of the fixing and the publication of its results. Similarly, we find statistically significant return advantages in the 4 minutes following the start of the fixing for informed traders. We find no significant impacts or returns following the publication of the fixing results. Trades in the opening minutes of the fixing are significantly predictive of the price direction of the fixings, in some cases exceeding 90%. Combined, these findings support the following conclusions: that the London PM gold price fixing does have material impact on the exchange traded gold instruments, information from the fixing is leaking into markets prior the fixing results being published, and there exist economic returns for trading on these information leaks. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:1003–1039, 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Caminschi & Richard Heaney, 2014. "Fixing a Leaky Fixing: Short‐Term Market Reactions to the London PM Gold Price Fixing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(11), pages 1003-1039, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:34:y:2014:i:11:p:1003-1039
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    Cited by:

    1. Smales, Lee A. & Yang, Yi, 2015. "The importance of belief dispersion in the response of gold futures to macroeconomic announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-302.
    2. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    3. Chai, Edwina F.L. & Lee, Adrian D. & Wang, Jianxin, 2015. "Global information distribution in the gold OTC markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 206-217.
    4. Aquilina, Matteo & Ibikunle, Gbenga & Mollica, Vito & Steffen, Tom, 2022. "The visible hand: benchmarks, regulation, and liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Frino, Alex & Ibikunle, Gbenga & Mollica, Vito & Steffen, Tom, 2018. "The impact of commodity benchmarks on derivatives markets: The case of the dated Brent assessment and Brent futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 27-43.
    6. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    7. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019.

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