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Testing mean reversion in financial market volatility: Evidence from S&P 500 index futures

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  • Turan G. Bali
  • K. Ozgur Demirtas

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive study of continuous time GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic) modeling with the thintailed normal and the fat‐tailed Student's‐t and generalized error distributions (GED). The study measures the degree of mean reversion in financial market volatility based on the relationship between discrete‐time GARCH and continuoustime diffusion models. The convergence results based on the aforementioned distribution functions are shown to have similar implications for testing mean reversion in stochastic volatility. Alternative models are compared in terms of their ability to capture mean‐reverting behavior of futures market volatility. The empirical evidence obtained from the S&P 500 index futures indicates that the conditional variance, log‐variance, and standard deviation of futures returns are pulled back to some long‐run average level over time. The study also compares the performance of alternative GARCH models with normal, Student's‐ t, and GED density in terms of their power to predict one‐day‐ahead realized volatility of index futures returns and provides some implications for pricing futures options. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1–33, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Turan G. Bali & K. Ozgur Demirtas, 2008. "Testing mean reversion in financial market volatility: Evidence from S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1-33, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:1:p:1-33
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    Cited by:

    1. Álvaro Cartea & Dimitrios Karyampas, 2016. "The Relationship between the Volatility of Returns and the Number of Jumps in Financial Markets," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 929-950, June.
    2. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    3. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, November.
    4. Sharma, Prateek & Vipul,, 2016. "Forecasting stock market volatility using Realized GARCH model: International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 222-230.
    5. Prateek Sharma & Vipul _, 2015. "Forecasting stock index volatility with GARCH models: international evidence," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(4), pages 445-463, October.
    6. Kirti AREKAR & Rinku JAIN, 2017. "Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 3, pages 20-25.
    7. Liu, Xiaoquan & Cao, Yi & Ma, Chenghu & Shen, Liya, 2019. "Wavelet-based option pricing: An empirical study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1132-1142.
    8. Manel Hamdi & Walid Chkili, 2019. "An artificial neural network augmented GARCH model for Islamic stock market volatility: Do asymmetry and long memory matter?," Working Papers 13, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.

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