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Hedging long‐term commodity risk

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  • Yulia V. Veld‐Merkoulova
  • Frans A. de Roon

Abstract

This study focuses on the problem of hedging longer‐term commodity positions, which often arises when the maturity of actively traded futures contracts on this commodity is limited to a few months. In this case, using a rollover strategy results in a high residual risk, which is related to the uncertain futures basis. We use a one‐factor term structure model of futures convenience yields in order to construct a hedging strategy that minimizes both spot‐price risk and rollover risk by using futures of two different maturities. The model is tested using three commodity futures: crude oil, orange juice, and lumber. In the out‐of‐sample test, the residual variance of the 24‐month combined spot‐futures positions is reduced by, respectively, 77%, 47%, and 84% compared to the variance of a naïve hedging portfolio. Even after accounting for the higher trading volume necessary to maintain a two‐contract hedge portfolio, this risk reduction outweighs the extra trading costs for the investor with an average risk aversion. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:109–133, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Yulia V. Veld‐Merkoulova & Frans A. de Roon, 2003. "Hedging long‐term commodity risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 109-133, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:2:p:109-133
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    Cited by:

    1. Katelijne A.E. Carbonez & Van Thi Tuong Nguyen & Piet Sercu, 2011. "Hedging with Two Futures Contracts: Simplicity Pays," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(5), pages 806-834, November.
    2. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Erik Schlögl, 2019. "Interest rate risk in long‐dated commodity options positions: To hedge or not to hedge?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 109-127, January.
    3. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Empirical Hedging Performance on Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives," Research Paper Series 376, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2006. "Contribution to Price Discovery in the Forest Product Market: Futures, Forwards, and Spot Markets," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21250, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Benjamin Tin Chun Cheng, 2017. "Pricing and Hedging of Long-Dated Commodity Derivatives," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2017.
    6. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. James S. Doran & Ehud I. Ronn, 2021. "Hedging Long-Dated Oil Futures and Options Using Short-Dated Securities—Revisiting Metallgesellschaft," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-10, August.
    8. Delphine Lautier & Alain Galli, 2010. "Dynamic hedging strategies: an application to the crude oil market," Post-Print halshs-00640802, HAL.
    9. Babacar Seck & Robert J. Elliott, 2021. "Regime Switching Entropic Risk Measures on Crude Oil Pricing," Papers 2112.13041, arXiv.org.
    10. Delphine Lautier & Yves Simon, 2004. "La volatilité des prix des matières premières," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 45-84.
    11. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "Price Discovery in Private Cash Forward Markets - The Case of Lumber," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19049, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    12. Yulia Merkoulova, 2020. "Predictive abilities of speculators in energy markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 804-815, May.

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