Forecasting realized volatility of oil futures market: A new insight

In this study we propose several new variables, such as continuous realized semi†variance and signed jump variations including jump tests, and construct a new heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility models to investigate the impacts that those new variables have on forecasting oil price volatility. In†sample results indicate that past negative returns have greater effects on future volatility than that of positive returns, and our new signed jump variations have a significantly negative influence on the future volatility. Out†of†sample empirical results with several robust checks demonstrate that our proposed models can not only obtain better performance in forecasting volatility but also garner larger economic values than can the existing models discussed in this paper.