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Understanding the economic determinants of the severity of operational losses: A regularized generalized Pareto regression approach

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  • Julien Hambuckers
  • Andreas Groll
  • Thomas Kneib

Abstract

We investigate a novel database of 10,217 extreme operational losses from the Italian bank UniCredit. Our goal is to shed light on the dependence between the severity distribution of these losses and a set of macroeconomic, financial, and firm‐specific factors. To do so, we use generalized Pareto regression techniques, where both the scale and shape parameters are assumed to be functions of these explanatory variables. We perform the selection of the relevant covariates with a state‐of‐the‐art penalized‐likelihood estimation procedure relying on L1‐penalty terms. A simulation study indicates that this approach efficiently selects covariates of interest and tackles spurious regression issues encountered when dealing with integrated time series. Lastly, we illustrate the impact of different economic scenarios on the requested capital for operational risk. Our results have important implications in terms of risk management and regulatory policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Hambuckers & Andreas Groll & Thomas Kneib, 2018. "Understanding the economic determinants of the severity of operational losses: A regularized generalized Pareto regression approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 898-935, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:33:y:2018:i:6:p:898-935
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2638
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. James, Robert & Leung, Henry & Leung, Jessica Wai Yin & Prokhorov, Artem, 2023. "Forecasting tail risk measures for financial time series: An extreme value approach with covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 29-50.
    2. Hendrik van der Wurp & Andreas Groll, 2023. "Introducing LASSO-type penalisation to generalised joint regression modelling for count data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 127-151, March.
    3. M. Bee & J. Hambuckers & L. Trapin, 2019. "Estimating Value-at-Risk for the g-and-h distribution: an indirect inference approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1255-1266, August.
    4. Francesca Biagini & Tobias Huber & Johannes G. Jaspersen & Andrea Mazzon, 2021. "Estimating extreme cancellation rates in life insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 971-1000, December.
    5. Gu, Zheng & Li, Yunxian & Zhang, Minghui & Liu, Yifei, 2023. "Modelling economic losses from earthquakes using regression forests: Application to parametric insurance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Groll, Andreas & Hambuckers, Julien & Kneib, Thomas & Umlauf, Nikolaus, 2019. "LASSO-type penalization in the framework of generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 59-73.
    7. Marco Bee & Julien Hambuckers & Luca Trapin, 2019. "An improved approach for estimating large losses in insurance analytics and operational risk using the g-and-h distribution," DEM Working Papers 2019/11, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Julien Hambuckers & Marie Kratz & Antoine Usseglio-Carleve, 2023. "Efficient Estimation In Extreme Value Regression Models Of Hedge Fund Tail Risks," Working Papers hal-04090916, HAL.
    9. Julien Hambuckers & Marie Kratz & Antoine Usseglio-Carleve, 2023. "Efficient Estimation in Extreme Value Regression Models of Hedge Fund Tail Risks," Papers 2304.06950, arXiv.org.
    10. Julien Hambuckers & Li Sun & Luca Trapin, 2023. "Measuring tail risk at high-frequency: An $L_1$-regularized extreme value regression approach with unit-root predictors," Papers 2301.01362, arXiv.org.
    11. Marco Bee & Julien Hambuckers & Flavio Santi & Luca Trapin, 2021. "Testing a parameter restriction on the boundary for the g-and-h distribution: a simulated approach," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 2177-2200, September.
    12. Linda Mhalla & Julien Hambuckers & Marie Lambert, 2022. "Extremal connectedness of hedge funds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 988-1009, August.

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