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The Public's Increasing Punitiveness and Its Influence on Mass Incarceration in the United States

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  • Peter K. Enns

Abstract

Following more than 30 years of rising incarceration rates, the United States now imprisons a higher proportion of its population than any country in the world. Building on theories of representation and organized interest group behavior, this article argues that an increasingly punitive public has been a primary reason for this prolific expansion. To test this hypothesis, I generate a new over‐time measure of the public's support for being tough on crime. The analysis suggests that, controlling for the crime rate, illegal drug use, inequality, and the party in power, since 1953 public opinion has been a fundamental determinant of changes in the incarceration rate. If the public's punitiveness had stopped rising in the mid‐1970s, the results imply that there would have been approximately 20% fewer incarcerations. Additionally, an analysis of congressional attention to criminal justice issues supports the argument that the public's attitudes have led, not followed, political elites.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter K. Enns, 2014. "The Public's Increasing Punitiveness and Its Influence on Mass Incarceration in the United States," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(4), pages 857-872, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:58:y:2014:i:4:p:857-872
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12098
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
    2. Peter K Enns & Jacob Harris & John Kenny & Andra Roescu & Will Jennings, 2022. "Public Responsiveness to Declining Crime Rates in the United States and England and Wales," The British Journal of Criminology, Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, vol. 62(5), pages 1093-1115.
    3. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/12b1pd86do8s6p35b4jqn66t0p is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Francesco Drago & Roberto Galbiati & Francesco Sobbrio, 2020. "The Political Cost of Being Soft on Crime: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3305-3336.
    6. Yohei Yamaguchi & Ken Yahagi, 2024. "Law enforcement and political misinformation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(1), pages 3-36, January.
    7. Chad W. Seagren & David Skarbek, 2021. "The evolution of norms within a society of captives," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 529-556, July.
    8. D’Amico, Daniel J. & Williamson, Claudia, 2015. "Do legal origins affect cross-country incarceration rates?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 595-612.
    9. Matthew E.K. Hall, 2017. "Macro Implementation: Testing the Causal Paths from U.S. Macro Policy to Federal Incarceration," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(2), pages 438-455, April.
    10. Omar García-Ponce & Lauren E Young & Thomas Zeitzoff, 2023. "Anger and support for retribution in Mexico’s drug war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(2), pages 274-290, March.
    11. Adams, Ian T. & McCrain, Joshua & Schiff, Daniel S. & Schiff, Kaylyn Jackson & Mourtgos, Scott M., 2022. "Public Pressure or Peer Influence: What Shapes Police Executives' Views on Civilian Oversight?," SocArXiv mdu96, Center for Open Science.
    12. Daniel J. D’Amico & Claudia R. Williamson, 2019. "An empirical examination of institutions and cross-country incarceration rates," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 217-242, September.
    13. David Skarbek, 2014. "Prisonomics: Lessons from America's Mass Incarceration," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 411-421, October.

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