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Region, Local Context, and Voting at the 1997 General Election in England

Author

Listed:
  • Ron Johnston
  • Kelvyn Jones
  • Carol Propper
  • Simon Burgess

Abstract

There has been considerable debate in recent work on voting patterns in Great Britain regarding the importance of regional effects: are these “real” or are they simply statistical artifacts of decision‐making processes at smaller spatial scales which are aggregated up to the regional scale if not incorporated directly into any modeling? Using a multilevel model design, this article reports on analyses of survey data for the 1997 general election in England which allows tests of whether regional variations are no more than aggregation effects. Individual voters are nested within households, neighborhoods, constituencies, and regions and when all of the smaller‐scale spatial levels are included in the model, the observed regional effects are statistically insignificant. At the 1997 general election, at least, regional variations within England in support for the three main parties—basically, a north‐south divide—are aggregation effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Johnston & Kelvyn Jones & Carol Propper & Simon Burgess, 2007. "Region, Local Context, and Voting at the 1997 General Election in England," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 640-654, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:51:y:2007:i:3:p:640-654
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00272.x
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    Cited by:

    1. David Cutts & Edward Fieldhouse, 2009. "What Small Spatial Scales Are Relevant as Electoral Contexts for Individual Voters? The Importance of the Household on Turnout at the 2001 General Election," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 726-739, July.
    2. Luise Koeppen & Dimitris Ballas & Arjen Edzes & Sierdjan Koster, 2021. "Places that don't matter or people that don't matter? A multilevel modelling approach to the analysis of the geographies of discontent," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 221-245, April.
    3. Pascal Sciarini & Anke Tresch, 2009. "A Two-Level Analysis of the Determinants of Direct Democratic Choices in European, Immigration and Foreign Policy in Switzerland," European Union Politics, , vol. 10(4), pages 456-481, December.
    4. Eugenio Levi & Fabrizio Patriarca, 2020. "An exploratory study of populism: the municipality-level predictors of electoral outcomes in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 833-875, October.
    5. Russell Weaver, 2015. "A Cross-Level Exploratory Analysis of “Neighborhood Effects” on Urban Behavior: An Evolutionary Perspective," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.
    7. Panagiotis Artelaris & Yannis Tsirbas, 2018. "Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 589-608, June.
    8. Maria Abreu & Özge Öner, 2020. "Disentangling the Brexit vote: The role of economic, social and cultural contexts in explaining the UK’s EU referendum vote," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1434-1456, October.
    9. Yongxin Deng, 2016. "Challenges and complications in neighborhood mapping: from neighborhood concept to operationalization," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 229-248, July.

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