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Democratic Survival, Peace, and War in the International System

Author

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  • Kelly M. Kadera
  • Mark J. C. Crescenzi
  • Megan L. Shannon

Abstract

Post‐World War II Western foreign policies are often based on the claim that the spread of democracy will result in global peace. Our understanding of how this propagation can bring about peace is limited, and we have little reason to believe that the causal arrow points only in one direction. We tackle these issues by modeling the linkages between states' regime types, interstate conflict, and the strength of the democratic community relative to the autocratic community. Analysis of our model suggests initial increases in the strength of the democratic community increase the level of conflict in a system. Beyond a threshold of democratic strength, however, conflict wanes as the democratic community waxes. Our model also suggests that the survival rate of democracies increases as the material strength of the democratic community increases and decreases as systemic conflict rises. Empirical analyses offer support for the survival propositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly M. Kadera & Mark J. C. Crescenzi & Megan L. Shannon, 2003. "Democratic Survival, Peace, and War in the International System," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 234-247, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:47:y:2003:i:2:p:234-247
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-5907.00016
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    Cited by:

    1. Håvard Hegre, 2005. "Development and the Liberal Peace," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 31, pages 17-46.
    2. Akerman, Anders & Seim, Anna Larsson, 2014. "The global arms trade network 1950–2007," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 535-551.
    3. Scott Wolford, 2020. "War and diplomacy on the world stage: Crisis bargaining before third parties," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(2), pages 235-261, April.
    4. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera‐Crichton & Brittany Tarufelli, 2022. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and political transitions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 465-493, July.
    5. Santiago López-Cariboni & Xun Cao, 2019. "When do authoritarian rulers educate: Trade competition and human capital investment in Non-Democracies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 367-405, September.
    6. Gizelis Theodora-Ismene, 2018. "Systematic Study of Gender, Conflict, and Peace," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Frederick R. Chen, 2019. "Disentangling bias: national capabilities, regime type, and international conflict mediation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 149-168, March.

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